Redeem Alpha Index · Q4 2026 · Methodology v3.1 · Quarterly update

Airline loyalty currencies, rated like the asset class they are.

Twenty-seven programs scored 0–100 across five weighted pillars and mapped to letter ratings — computed from a 2,402-route valuation database, a maintained devaluation register, and program attributes. Published quarterly. No rated program pays Redeem anything.

27
programs rated AAA to D
2,402
priced routes underlying every score
3.0¢
Execution Floor — minimum net value Redeem deploys at
5.0¢
Alpha Threshold — the managed-value target band
v3.1
methodology — computed, versioned, quarterly

01Methodology — five pillars, computed

Every rating derives mechanically from disclosed inputs. Prose explains the numbers; it can never contradict them. v3.1 computes Value, Consistency and Drag from the full 2,402-route valuation database, cabin-weighted — premium long-haul 70%, everyday economy and North America awards 30%, each on its own scale — so a program is rated on everything it prices, not on how many rows of each cabin the database happens to hold. Supersedes v3.0. Medians, not unicorns.

35%
Redemption Value

Every route in the 2,402-route valuation database, cabin-weighted: premium long-haul 70% (scored 1¢→8¢) and everyday economy & North America awards 30% (scored 1¢→4¢). Each group blends its median net ¢/point (75%) with the P75 sweet-spot ceiling (25%).

25%
Stability

Pricing regime (published chart > zone > dynamic) minus penalties from the 24-month devaluation register, recent events weighted heavier.

20%
Liquidity & Access

Inbound transferability across the six major bank currencies (40%), transfer-bonus cadence × depth (40%) — a 30% bonus five times a year is a standing discount on every seat — and network coverage (20%).

10%
Consistency

Dispersion of outcomes (IQR ÷ median) across chart cells, measured within each cabin group and weighted 70/30. Plannable value scores; lottery value doesn't.

10%
Surcharge Drag

Cash surcharges as a share of the fare across every priced route, weighted 70/30 by cabin group — the haircut between gross and net.

AAA
80–100
Accumulate
AA
70–79
Strategic Long
A
60–69
Constructive
BBB
50–59
Hold · Execute
BB
40–49
Watch
B
30–39
Reduce
D
<30
Avoid

02The Matrix — Q4 2026

Tap any program for the full dossier: the qualitative play, best benchmark routes, funding paths from your cards, availability reality, and risks — alongside the pillar scores. Medians are net of surcharges. Where a program offers a documented co-brand cardholder award discount, it is rated on effective value for cardholders and flagged.

Master Index
Domestic USA
International

#ProgramRatingScoreMedian (wtd)PostureConfidence

03Hub award chart comparison

Select your home airport. For every region and cabin, this is the program that delivers the highest net value per point — and what it costs in points. Ratings shown are from the Matrix above; a strong route in a weak program is still a valid one-time redemption.

Best-value program per corridor (highest net ¢/point, before cardholder discounts) from the Redeem route valuation database v5.3 (2,402 routes; the 21 home airports with ≥ 40 priced routes, plus Honolulu, are shown; chart review September 21, 2026). Points are one-way. Net cpp is after taxes and surcharges. Benchmarks, not live quotes.

04Rating actions — this publication

Q4 2026
All programs — Methodology v3.1Value, Consistency and Drag now computed from the full Redeem route valuation database v5.3 — 2,402 routes (v3.0 used a 1,000-route premium-cabin benchmark). Routes are scored in two cabin groups on their own scales and weighted at fixed shares — premium long-haul 70%, everyday economy and North America awards 30% — so heavy domestic coverage in the database cannot swamp a rating. Headline medians are the same 70/30 blend; each dossier shows both group medians.
Q4 2026
Iberia PlusDowngraded AA → A / Constructive. Composite 76.2 → 69.1 on 33 routes (Q3: 16) — premium long-haul 7.5¢ (n=19) / everyday 2.6¢ (n=14). May 2025 repricing (34K → 40.5K business) entered in the register (Stability 80 → 72). Premium long-haul median 7.5¢, #4 in the index.
Q4 2026
Virgin AtlanticDowngraded AA → A / Constructive. Composite 77.7 → 61.5 on 46 routes (Q3: 29) — premium long-haul 7.0¢ (n=38) / everyday 2.0¢ (n=8). Delta One re-priced with ~$1,000 non-UK surcharges and ANA to the live chart; surcharge drag on own-metal economy ~29%. Value case still rests on ANA First.
Q4 2026
Avianca LifeMilesDowngraded A → BBB / Hold · Execute. Composite 65.8 → 59.1 on 22 routes (Q3: 17) — premium long-haul 6.4¢ (n=17) / everyday 1.9¢ (n=5). April 2026 partner repricing now fully in route values (premium 6.4¢); Stability held at 35 after three devaluations in fourteen months.
Q4 2026
Korean SKYPASSDowngraded A → BBB / Hold · Execute. Composite 62.7 → 57.0 on 49 routes (Q3: 22) — premium long-haul 7.0¢ (n=31) / everyday 2.4¢ (n=18). 18 economy routes (2.4¢, ~12% surcharges) now priced alongside the 80K First sweet spot.
Q4 2026
Singapore KrisFlyerDowngraded A → BBB / Hold · Execute. Composite 66.5 → 56.4 on 24 routes (Q3: 15) — premium long-haul 4.8¢ (n=17) / everyday 1.8¢ (n=7). West Coast rows re-priced to the current Saver chart (112.5K business / 154K Suites); economy awards net 1.8¢.
Q4 2026
Air Canada AeroplanDowngraded A → BBB / Hold · Execute. Composite 63.1 → 54.4 on 286 routes (Q3: 80) — premium long-haul 5.2¢ (n=177) / everyday 1.5¢ (n=109). 286 routes across 25 chart cells; June 2026 chart holds premium at 5.2¢, but economy partner awards net 1.5¢ after surcharges.
Q4 2026
Cathay Asia MilesDowngraded A → BBB / Hold · Execute. Composite 64.3 → 52.1 on 27 routes (Q3: 13) — premium long-haul 4.2¢ (n=16) / everyday 2.3¢ (n=11). May 1, 2026 long-haul premium repricing entered in the register (Stability 80 → 68); rows on the May chart (91K / 119K business).
Q4 2026
British Airways AviosDowngraded BBB → BB / Watch. Composite 57.3 → 47.6 on 86 routes (Q3: 28) — premium long-haul 3.6¢ (n=43) / everyday 1.9¢ (n=43). Zone-B gateways corrected to 99K business (file had 88K); AA-domestic partner chart re-priced. Premium median 3.6¢ is the lowest of any chart program.
Q4 2026
Flying BlueDowngraded BBB → BB / Watch. Composite 53.3 → 45.5 on 68 routes (Q3: 26) — premium long-haul 5.2¢ (n=40) / everyday 1.7¢ (n=28). September 8 Light / Standard / Flex split on AF/KL metal (Stability 45 → 30; outlook Negative). Economy awards carry ~32% surcharge drag.
Q4 2026
JetBlue TrueBlueUpgraded B → BB / Watch. Composite 38.2 → 45.4 on 67 routes (Q3: 14) — premium long-haul 4.3¢ (n=10) / everyday 2.3¢ (n=57). Upgrade reflects the cabin-weighted method: Mint transatlantic (4.35¢ cardholder-effective, 10 routes) now carries its 70% weight; 57 everyday routes (domestic, Caribbean and transatlantic economy) at 2.3¢.
Q4 2026
Etihad GuestDowngraded BBB → BB / Watch. Composite 59.0 → 44.2 on 25 routes (Q3: 19) — premium long-haul 6.4¢ (n=20) / everyday 1.0¢ (n=5). Five economy routes net 1.0¢ after ~47% surcharges, pulling Drag to 0 — flagged for a data check before Q1.
Q4 2026
SAS EuroBonusDowngraded BB → B / Reduce. Composite 45.9 → 39.1 on 28 routes (Q3: 14) — premium long-haul 4.6¢ (n=14) / everyday 1.5¢ (n=14). Economy awards net 1.5¢ after ~25% surcharges; no transfer-funding path keeps Liquidity near zero.
Q4 2026
Turkish Miles&SmilesDowngraded A → B / Reduce. Composite 67.4 → 38.9 on 42 routes (Q3: 18) — premium long-haul 5.1¢ (n=24) / everyday 1.1¢ (n=18). v4 chart review re-priced every row — US–Istanbul business 45K → 65K, Star partner business to Europe at 90K. Economy awards net just 1.1¢ after ~32% surcharges.
Q4 2026
Lufthansa Miles & MoreDowngraded BB → B / Reduce. Composite 44.0 → 37.8 on 105 routes (Q3: 48) — premium long-haul 5.9¢ (n=72) / everyday 1.2¢ (n=33). Economy awards lose over half the fare to surcharges (~53%); premium drag 13.5%, the worst in the index.
Q4 2026
AffirmedANA, Aer Lingus AerClub, Aeromexico Rewards, American AAdvantage, Atmos Rewards, Delta SkyMiles, EVA Infinity MileageLands, Emirates Skywards, JAL Mileage Bank, Qantas FF, Qatar Privilege Club, Southwest Rapid Rewards, United MileagePlus. Re-computed on all routes within their existing grades.
Q4 2026
Devaluation register correctionsThree repricings missing from the Q3 register are now logged: Emirates (May 20, 2026), Cathay (May 1, 2026) and Iberia (May 2025). Flying Blue's September 8, 2026 restructure logged as a new event.
Q4 2026
Transfer-bonus register, Q3Logged: Amex 30% to BA / Iberia / Aer Lingus Avios (Aug – Sept 27) · Chase 20% to Aeroplan (Aug 12 – Sept 30) · Capital One 30% to JAL (Sept) · Citi 30% to JAL and to LifeMiles (Sept 20 – Oct 24) · Citi 25% and Bilt up to 100% to Virgin Atlantic (Sept). Cadence inputs updated for Virgin Atlantic and JAL.
Q4 2026
Hub award chartsExpanded from 15 to 22 home airports — Austin, Charlotte, Newark, Phoenix, Minneapolis, Portland and Salt Lake City added.
Q4 2026
CoverageAer Lingus AerClub, SAS EuroBonus remain Thin (≤ 2 chart cells) and Under Review. Leaving Under Review on the expanded data: Iberia Plus, Korean SKYPASS, Qantas FF, EVA Infinity MileageLands, Flying Blue, Lufthansa Miles & More, JetBlue TrueBlue, Aeromexico Rewards.
Companion view
The Liquidity Map — every program, every bank currency that funds it, transfer ratios, bonus cadence, and what each seat actually costs once a bonus lands. Open the Liquidity Map →
Independence. Redeem accepts no commissions, referral fees, or payments from any rated program, issuer, or booking platform. No rated program has input into, or advance sight of, methodology or conclusions. Ratings are planning opinions, not investment advice; loyalty currencies carry the risks in the Full Risk Disclosure, including the program's unilateral right to devalue or revoke balances.

05The rules that constrain every rating

Published in full so any figure on this page can be reproduced or challenged.

Execution Floor — 3.0¢ net. No Redeem redemption is executed below it without documented client rationale. An operations rule, not a rating input.
Alpha Threshold — 5.0¢ net. The managed-value target band; performance above it is what client statements report as alpha. Replaces the former 5.0¢ "floor," which benchmark data did not support as a minimum.
Funding efficiency — the effective-cost rule. The award chart is only half the price. A program bonused 25–30% four to six times a year costs materially fewer bank points for the same seat, and recurring program promos (Flying Blue’s monthly Promo Rewards) cut it further. Transfer-bonus cadence and promo depth feed the Liquidity pillar; every rating publishes its bonus-funded and stacked effective cpp beside the headline median.
Coverage confidence — the anti-illusion rule. A rating is only as strong as the number of distinct chart cells behind it (one points price × one cabin). Fifteen routes that all price at the same chart cell are one observation, not fifteen. Programs with ≤ 2 cells are marked Thin, capped at AA, and flagged Under Review — no matter how high the median. Consistency is measured across cells, so repetition cannot manufacture a perfect score.
Realized blend. Once a program reaches n ≥ 5 executed Redeem redemptions, realized medians blend into the value pillar — up to 70% weight at n ≥ 20. The index migrates from modeled to measured.